June 2022

VOlUME 05 ISSUE 06 JUNE 2022
Desistance from Terrorism Forecasting: Idling Mode and Catalyst Event
1Ardi Putra Prasetya,
2Adrianus Eliasta Sembiring Meliala,
3Iqrak Sulhin
1,2,3Department of Criminology. Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Indonesia. Depok, Indonesia
DOI : https://doi.org/10.47191/ijsshr/v5-i6-04

Google Scholar Download Pdf
ABSTRACT

This study explains findings in the field related to the conditions faced by former terror perpetrators after undergoing a period of deradicalization. This study seeks to answer the question, “how is the forecasting of the typology of desistance from terrorism from terrorists who have stopped?” There are new findings related to forecasting conditions or events that can be a catalyst for former terrorists to return to commit acts of terror again. The forecast will include the development of idling mode conditions that tend to be experienced by former terror perpetrators. After idling mode, the catalyst event was found that encourages former terrorists to return to action. This condition is also inseparable from the influence of globalization which has resulted in a lot of information, in which former perpetrators of terror are involved and have a role in the organization of terrorism. On the other hand, there are conditions of former terrorists trapped in ‘dependence states’ of terrorist organizations, which causes them to be unable to escape from terrorist activities. This analysis is based on the findings of focus group discussions conducted in as many as three meetings. This focus group discussion has engaged practitioners and stakeholders related to the handling and countermeasures of terrorism and radicalism. In addition, to get comprehensive data, focus group discussion has also involved former perpetrators of terrorism as a credible choice.

KEYWORDS:

Terrorism, Desistance from Terrorism, Deradicalization, Idling Mode, Catalyst Event

REFERENCES

1) Ali, M. N. (2016). Studi Terorisme di Sulawesi Tengah. Volume 16 Number 2 December 2016.

2) Altier, M. B., Boyle, E., & Horgan, J. (2017). Returning to the Fight: An Empirical Analysis of Terrorist Re-engagement and Recidivism. Conference: International Studies AssociationAt: San Francisco, CA.

3) Altier, M. B., Horgan, & Thoroughgood, C. (2012). In Their Own Words? Methodological Considerations in the Analysis of Terrorist Autobiographies. Journal of Strategic Security 5, no. 4 (2012): 85-98.

4) Ansori, M. H. (2019). MEMBERANTAS TERORISME DI INDONESIA: PRAKTIK, KEBIJAKAN DAN TANTANGAN. THE HABIBIE CENTER.

5) Bauer, K., & Levitt, M. (2020). Funding in Place: Local Financing Trends Behind Today’s Global Terrorist Threat. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism– (ICCT) Evolutions in Counter-Terrorism, Vol. 2 (November 2020): 47-76.

6) Bloom, M. (New York, NY: Columbia University Press.). Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror. 2005.

7) Borum, R. (2004). Psychology of Terrorism. Tampa: University of South Florida.

8) Chew, A. (2021). From Malaysia to the Philippines, what are the most serious terror threats in Southeast Asia 20 years after 9/11?. Taken back from Scmp.com: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3149728/malaysia-philippines- what-are-most-serious-terror-threatsCommission for Countering Extremism. (2020). How hateful extremists are exploiting the pandemic.

9) Crenshaw, M. (1981). The causes of terrorism. Comparative Politics, 13(4), 379-399.

10) Creswell, J. W. (2009). Research Design: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches 3rd Edition. California: Sage Publications Inc.

11) Darajat, Z. (2016). Jihad dinamis: menelusuri konsep dan praktik jihad dalam sejarah Islam. Ijtihad, Jurnal Wacana Hukum Islam dan Kemanusiaan Vol. 16, No. 1 (2016), pp. 1-25, doi : 10.18326/ijtihad.v16i1.1-25.

12) Davis, I., Smith, D., & Wezeman, P. (2017). Armed conflict and instability in the Middle East and North Africa. Diambil kembali dari SIPRI Yearbook 2017: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2017/03

13) European Parliament. (2019). Disinformation and propaganda Impact the functioning of the rule of law in the EU and its Member States.

14) Gosita, A. (1993). Masalah Korban Kejahatan (Kumpulan Karangan). Jakarta: Akademika Pressindo.

15) Gunaratna, R., & Hennessy, O. (2012). Understanding the Radical Mindset: Factors Motivating Terrorism and Political Violence. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 9, 2012.

16) Hegghammer, T. (2012). The Recruiter’s Dilemma: Signalling and Rebel Recruitment Tactics.

17) Hikam, M. A. (2018). PERKEMBANGAN KELOMPOK RADIKAL DI INDONESIA PASCA PERPPU ORMAS NOMOR 2 TAHUN 2017 DAN UU NOMOR 5 TAHUN 2018 TERORISME DALAM PERSPEKTIF KEAMANAN NASIONAL.Jurnal Pertahanan & Bela Negara | Desember 2018, Volume 8 Nomor 3.

18) Huda, A. Z., Runturambi, A., & Syauqillah, M. (2021). Social Media as An Incubator of Youth Terrorism In Indonesia: Hybrid Threat and Warfare. Jurnal Indo-Islamika, Volume 11, No. 1, 2021.

19) Ismail, N. H. (2020). Indonesia: Perennial Issue of Terrorist Recidivism. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

20) Ismail, N. H., & Sim, S. (2016). From prison to carnage in Jakarta: Predicting terrorist recidivism in Indonesia’s prisons (Part 2). Taken back from brookings.edu: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/predicting-terrorist-recidivism-in-indonesias- prisons/

21) Iwuoha, V. C. (2020). ‘Fake News and ‘Half-truths’ in the Framings of Boko Haram Narrative: Implications on International Counterterrorism Responses. The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs.

22) Jamal, U. (2020). Is Islamic State gaining ground in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines amid COVID Diambil kembali dari Asean Today: https://www.aseantoday.com/2020/10/is-islamic-state-gaining-ground-in- indonesia-malaysia-and-the-philippines-amid-covid-19/

23) Kaplan, O., & Nussio, E. (2016). Explaining Recidivism of Ex-combatants in Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution May 2016.

24) Keling, F., Shuib, M., Ajis, M., & Nadzri, A. (2009). The Problems of Terrorism in Southeast Asia.

25) Klausen, J. (2015). Tweeting the Jihad: Social Media Networks of Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 38:1, 1-22.

26) Kumar, West, R., & Leskovec, J. (2016). Disinformation on the Web: Impact, Characteristics, and Detection of Wikipedia Hoaxes. Paper presented at WWW 2016, April 11–15, 2016, Montréal, Québec, Canada.

27) Kydd, A., & Walter, B. (2006). The Strategies of Terrorism. International Security 31(1):49{80.

28) Lake, D. A. (2002). Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century. International Organization Dialog-IO:15.

29) Laksmi, S. W. (2019). Nexus between Charities and Terrorist Financing In Indonesia. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, Vol. 11, No. 7 (September 2019), pp. 610.

30) Leiken, R. S., & Brooke, S. (2006). The Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism and Immigration: An Initial Exploration. Terrorism and Political Violence 18 (2006).

31) Lieberman, A. V. (2017). Terrorism, the Internet, and Propaganda: A Deadly Combination. JOURNAL OF NATIONAL SECURITY LAW & POLICY [Vol. 9:95.

32) Magouirk, J. (2008). Jemaah Islamiyah's radical madrassah networks. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Volume 1, 2008 - Issue 1.

33) Nazala, R. M. (2019). New Terrorism: What Can the History of Terrorism Contribute? Jurnal Hubungan Internasional Vol 8 No 1 .

34) Parker, T. (2019). Avoiding the Terrorist Trap: Why Respect for Human Rights is the Key to Defeating Terrorism. World Scientific Europe.

35) See, S. (2018). Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters: A Catalyst for Recidivism Among Disengaged. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, Vol. 10, No. 6 (June 2018), pp. 7-15.

36) Shelley, L. (2008). Chapter 9: Youth, Crime, and Terrorism. Dalam D. Uhloy, Political Violence, Organization Crime, Terrorism, and Youth. IOS Press.

37) Silke, A. (2014). Risk assessment of terrorists and extremists. Dalam A. Silke, Prisons, Terrorism and Extremism: Critical Issues. London: Routledge.

38) Sugiyono. (2015). Metode Penelitian Pendidikan (Pendekatan Kuantitatif dan Kualitatif). Bandung: Alfabeta.

39) Susanto. (2019). Radikalisme Tumbuh saat Euforia Pemilu. Taken back from https://mediaindonesia.com/politik-dan-hukum/221773/radikalisme-tumbuh-saat- euforia-pemilu

40) Talwar, S., Dhir, A., Singh, D., Virk, G., & Salo, J. (2020). Sharing of fake news on social media: Application of the honeycomb framework and the third-person effect hypothesis. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services Volume 57, November 2020.

41) Tobing, F. B., & Indradjaja, E. (2019). ISLAMIC STATE IN IRAQ AND SYRIA (ISIS) AND ITS IMPACT IN INDONESIA. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Vol. 21 No. 1. Page 101-12.

42) Torres-Soriano, & Ricardo, M. (2017). Jihadist Propaganda as a Threat Indicator: The Case of Spain. Terrorism and Political Violence.

43) UNICRI. (2020). Stop The Virus of Disinformation. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT).

44) Veldhuis, T., & Staun, J. (2009). Islamist radicalisation: A root cause model. The Hague: Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.

45) Wijayanti, Y. T. (2020). Radicalism Prevention through Propaganda Awareness on Social Media. Jurnal ASPIKOM, Vol. 5, No. 1, January 2020, pp 142-155.

46) Wilson Center. (2019). Timeline: The Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State. Taken back from Wilson Center: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise- spread-and-fall-the-Islamic-state

47) Windle, J. (2018). Fundraising, Organised Crime and Financing Terrorism. Dalam Silke, The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. Abingdon: Routledge.

48) Wu, L., Morstatter, F., Carley, K., & Liu, H. (2019). Misinformation in Social Media: Definition, Manipulation, and Detection. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter Volume 21Issue 2 December 2019.

49) Yaoren, K. Y. (2019). Leadership Decapitation and the Impact on Terrorist Groups. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, Vol. 11, No. 3 (March 2019), pp. 7-12.

VOlUME 05 ISSUE 06 JUNE 2022

Indexed In

Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar Avatar